The Tortoise Speaks...

A blog which periodically revisits evergreen investment principles!

Why Nifty and Sensex may not be the right barometers to look at!

By Raj Mehta, [email protected]

Last week, I met one of my friends who asked me an interesting question, “Why is it that Nifty and Sensex were up 25% in the year 2012 but I have lost money in my portfolio?”. Many times I hear people say Nifty is up 13% year to date or Sensex is up 12% but what does it mean to your portfolio?

CNX Nifty or Nifty 50 is an index of 50 stocks whereas S&P BSE Sensex is an index of only 30 stocks. The criteria for the constitution of this index is set in such a way that only companies with a large market capitalisation can enter these indices. Other factors which are more important like business sustainability, profitability, growth, management have not been considered. So this would include a possibility that “Hot sector companies” might find the place in the index whereas a well managed, dividend paying company might not be included. The criteria of selecting the index constituents shifts the bias towards large market capitalisation companies and the index is not well represented. For eg. ITC has a weightage of 10.68% in BSE Sensex currently but you might not have it in your portfolio considering the valuations that it is trading at. If today ITC moves up by 5%, then the index would move up just by its weightage in ITC but your portfolio return could actually be negative.

Can we really use FMCG techniques to market MF products?

Jayant Pai , [email protected]

Mutual FundAt a recent mutual fund seminar, there was the usual lament about how funds are failing to gain traction among ‘small investors’. While several causes were cited, they mostly boiled down to mutual funds failing to resonate or ‘connect’ with investors.

It was then posited that mutual funds should take a leaf out of FMCG product marketing strategies. The underlying belief behind this was that small investors are no different from small consumers. As long as you attractively package the idea to them and educate them about the utility of the product, they will bite.

How permanent are the “temporary” measures?

By Raj Mehta, [email protected]

In the past 2 months, RBI has tried to take many steps to stem the flow in the fall of rupee against the dollar. If you have a glance at the exchange rate history over the past month,it doesn’t seem as if those measures have had any effect on the rupee. But if you think the other way round, if RBI had not taken those steps then the rupee could have depreciated even further. The RBI has taken steps towards tightening the liquidity in the system while the government has tried everything to curb the gold imports from increasing the import duty on gold to limitation on borrowing against gold. The measures include RBI cutting the amount of funds it lends to individual banks under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) to 0.5% of the deposits of a bank. This compares with 1%, or Rs 75,000 crore, available for the entire financial system.RBI raised lending rates to commercial banks 2 per cent to 10.25 per cent making the loans costlier.The other measure was to suck out liquidity from the system. The RBI asked banks to maintain a higher average CRR (cash reserve ratio) of 99 per cent of the requirement on a daily basis as against the 70 per cent required earlier. Also, the RBI made it mandatory for the FIIs to obtain the consent of holders of participatory notes and derivative instruments. While announcing these measures, RBI has always said in their statement that these measures are “temporary” and they will be rolled back as soon as the currency settles a bit and the economy improves. How long will the “temporary” measures last is the question stock market is asking.

While we are sleeping

By Ankur Mahajan, [email protected]

“Thoda market ko stable hone do, phir invest karenge” , exclaims a potential investor being chased by every salesperson of a financial intermediary in these dampened markets. In hindsight, the salesperson is offering the sanest advice to invest especially when the markets are battered and bruised. However, the person who was thinking to invest has never run out of reasons for his preference towards real estate and gold over equities. His primary reason of abstaining from equities is waiting for the Indian markets to resuscitate. While equity Investor continue to sleep and invested heavily in gold and real estate, the markets are offering them umpteen hints to resume investing.

Investing for Beginners & Finding our own Investing Style

By Raunak Onkar, [email protected]

When a lot of people first start to read & learn about investing they invariably end up reading about Warren Buffett in their first few weeks of reading. From there onwards begins this fairy tale dream ride into the idea that someday they can also invest like Warren Buffett. The next automatic step that people tend to take is to read what any other fund manager worth their salt has to say about Warren Buffett. To remind you, at this point there is not a single rupee invested by this person, ever in his life (apart from may be the automated Fixed Deposit certificates & PPF investments).

After having read & being enamoured with Warren B’s performance & his dazzlingly simple explanations of how he analyses businesses, people start with the notion that investing is an easy affair. By this time, the activity of really sitting through an entire market cycle not being able to find great investment opportunities or even spending huge amounts of time & effort in researching industries & their managers has never happened to them.

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